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OSAMAH ALMOKDAD's avatar

Excellent analysis, particularly because it treats the Russian article as institutional evidence rather than assuming that a single publication constitutes doctrine.

I might interpret one point slightly differently. What is emerging here may be more than simply avoiding Ukrainian air defences rather than suppressing them. It looks increasingly like an attempt to redefine what “access” to contested airspace means.

If reconnaissance and designation can be pushed forward to UAVs, while manned aircraft remain outside engagement zones and deliver stand-off weapons into them, the VKS can generate effects inside airspace it does not physically control.

In that sense, the adaptation is architectural: risk, sensing, designation and weapons delivery are being distributed across different layers of the force.

Air superiority may remain contested while functional access is still created.

Andreas Turunen's avatar

Thank you @OSAMAH ALMOKDAD for your comment and adding your view.

Michaelangelo's avatar

Interesting article, points to the Russians having their own lessons learned.

Staff studies are good because it collects and acts on data also.

Thanks for sharing.

JG's avatar

Exceedingly interesting reading and certainly filled in a few black spots in my knowledge. Appreciated, good work 👍

The War Tipping Point Engineer's avatar

Look at the maths of this war: Breaking news: The Rusian War System collaps is closing in fast:!! The overall Russian Ssystematic Collapse Index (RSCI) has climbed 4,2 % in one week to a critical 83.6%. The machine continues to operate, but it is doing so strictly by depleting its non-renewable strategic buffers and enforcing severe domestic rationing. Supported by a structural overmatch of 3.6x Drohne ratio UKR / RUS, the mathematical framework proves that the adversary is running on an end-date timeline. The system has entered an irreversible slide toward its 100% stop-condition. Check it out!

Jan Mouchet's avatar

An interesting dossier thanks!!!